Executive Summary

Q4 2025 was a two‑month quarter (Aug–Sep) due to fiscal year-end change; net sales from continuing operations were $701.3M (−3.3% YoY) while Adjusted EBITDA rose 7.4% to $98.9M and EBITDA margin expanded ~140 bps YoY; GAAP diluted EPS (continuing ops) was −$0.73, with Adjusted EPS $0.01, driven by outsized tax expense and discontinuity effects from divestitures .
Versus S&P Global consensus: revenue missed ($701.3M vs $714.4M), EPS missed (−$0.73 vs $0.60); Adjusted EBITDA was modestly below consensus ($98.9M vs $101.2M)*; management emphasized margin gains from price/cost and cost optimization offsetting industrial demand softness .
FY 2026 low‑end guidance initiated: Adjusted EBITDA $630M and Adjusted FCF $315M; cost optimization commitment increased to $120M cumulative by FY 2027; pro forma leverage now below 1.0x, and an open‑market repurchase of ~$150M is planned as a near‑term capital allocation catalyst .
Portfolio reshaping completed: containerboard divestiture (Q4) and timberlands sale (Oct 1) bolstered balance sheet and lowered capital intensity; Q4 included large discontinued ops gains and unusual tax effects which distorted GAAP EPS optics .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Adjusted EBITDA up 7.4% YoY to $98.9M, with EBITDA margin expansion (~14.1% vs ~12.7% YoY) from price/cost improvements and cost actions: “EBITDA margins also expanded year-over-year by 140 basis points” .
Cost optimization ahead of plan: $50M run‑rate achieved in FY25; cumulative target raised to $120M by FY27; SG&A rationalization and ground‑up ideas accelerating savings: “raising… cumulative run rate commitment… to $120 million” .
Strategic focus areas performing: small polymer containers momentum (agrochemicals), closures winning new business at 30%+ gross margin, and fiber segment gross profit up on better price/cost, despite volume softness .

Quotes:

CEO: “We closed fiscal ’25 as a more focused… company… Our transformation is accelerating and the results are beginning to show.” .
CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $99 million, which was 7.4% above the prior year.” .
CEO on savings: “cost optimization… now being fueled from the ground up… we are raising… to $120 million.” .

What Went Wrong

GAAP EPS (continuing ops) fell to −$0.73 on heavy tax expense against a short two‑month pre‑tax loss base and residual discontinued ops impacts; Adjusted EPS dropped to $0.01: “tax expense of $26.8M on a $9.6M net loss before tax” .
Industrial demand softness weighed on volumes: Metals −6.6% volume, Fiber −7.7%; IBCs declined mid‑single digits; management sees no compelling demand inflection yet .
Integrated Solutions net sales and EBITDA fell YoY on lower selling prices and mix; operating loss of $(2.7)M in Q4 vs $4.1M prior year two‑month period .

Analyst concerns: chemicals/end‑market weakness, sequencing of FY26 EBITDA (Q1 ≈20% of year), and reliance on cost to offset incremental volume downside; management pointed to levers across shifts/furloughs and continued cost momentum .

Financial Results

Note: Q4 2025 reflects a two‑month quarter (Aug–Sep). Q2 and Q3 are three‑month quarters.

Metric	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025
Net Sales ($M)	$1,385.7	$1,134.7	$701.3
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$213.9	$160.7	$98.9
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %	15.4% (213.9/1,385.7)	14.2% (160.7/1,134.7)	14.1% (98.9/701.3)
GAAP Diluted EPS – Class A (Continuing Ops)	$0.82	$0.67	$(0.73)
Adjusted Diluted EPS – Class A	$1.19	$1.03	$0.01
Net Income (Continuing Ops, $M)	$47.3	$44.7	$(38.6)

Versus prior year (two‑month comps, Aug–Sep):

Metric	Q4 2024 (Aug–Sep)	Q4 2025 (Aug–Sep)	YoY Δ
Net Sales ($M)	$724.9	$701.3	−3.3%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$92.1	$98.9	+7.4%
GAAP Diluted EPS – Class A (Continuing Ops)	$0.58	$(0.73)	↓ (tax impact)
Adjusted Diluted EPS – Class A	$0.59	$0.01	↓

Consensus vs actual (Q4 2025; S&P Global):

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Beat/Miss
Revenue ($M)	$714.4*	$701.3	MISS
Primary EPS ($)	$0.60*	$(0.73) (GAAP cont.)	MISS
EBITDA ($M)	$101.2*	$98.9 (Adj EBITDA, company)	MISS (slight)

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown (two‑month Q4; Aug–Sep):

Segment	Net Sales ($M) Q4 2024	Net Sales ($M) Q4 2025	Adj EBITDA ($M) Q4 2024	Adj EBITDA ($M) Q4 2025
Customized Polymer Solutions	$199.0	$205.4	$24.9	$28.4
Durable Metal Solutions	$259.5	$247.3	$25.6	$27.9
Sustainable Fiber Solutions	$208.2	$196.6	$35.4	$40.5
Integrated Solutions	$58.2	$52.0	$6.2	$2.1
Total	$724.9	$701.3	$92.1	$98.9

KPIs and balance sheet:

KPI	Q4 2025
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($M, two‑month)	$122.6
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities ($M, two‑month)	$(244.7)
Total Debt ($M)	$1,202.5
Net Debt ($M)	$945.8
Leverage Ratio (Credit Agreement)	1.63x
NPS Score	72
Share Repurchase Plan	~$150M planned

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	FY 2026	N/A	$630	New
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($M)	FY 2026	N/A	$315	New
Combined Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	FY 2025	$725 (low‑end at Q2)	$725–$735 (range at Q3)	Raised range
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($M)	FY 2025	$280 (low‑end at Q2)	$305–$315 (range at Q3)	Raised range
SG&A Run‑Rate Cost Optimization ($M)	FY 2026 impact	N/A	~$39 incremental SG&A savings in FY26 bridge	New detail
Price/Cost Bridge Items ($M)	FY 2026	N/A	~$12 sourcing benefits; ~$18 URB pricing tailwind; lower expected OCC costs	New detail
FX ($M)	FY 2026	N/A	+$7 benefit (weaker USD)	New detail
Land Management EBITDA Headwind ($M)	FY 2026	N/A	$(10) from lack of land management	New detail
Dividends	Next Board meeting	Regular cadence; next on Dec 9	Confirmed schedule	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3)	Current Period (Q4)	Trend
AI/Technology initiatives	Efficiency actions across plants; structural cost improvements; early mentions of digital tools	“Deploying AI solutions to reduce scrap and improve OEE” in cost program	Expanding deployment
Supply chain/OCC	OCC squeezed margins in Integrated Solutions; secure OCC supply chain strategic value	Lower published OCC costs expected; closures mix revenue improvement	Improving cost backdrop
Tariffs/Macro	Max direct exposure < $10M; largely mitigated; local sourcing model	No demand inflection; tariffs still < $10M; steel pricing pass‑through a temporary tailwind	Neutral to slight tailwind via steel
Product performance	Small polymers up; IBCs and large drums down; fiber drums weak; URB price increases underway	Small containers momentum (agrochemicals); metals and fiber volumes down; closures strong margins and wins	Portfolio tilt to resilient end‑markets
Regional trends	Metals: NA weaker; EMEA down slightly; backlog improving	EMEA metals on 2‑year stack up; NA metals softer; FX +$7 benefit assumed	Mixed; NA weaker
R&D/Innovation	Focused organic investments; capex prioritization; URB price actions	IonKraft proprietary barrier technology with UN‑approved container; lines ramping through FY27	New platform scaling
Cost optimization	$10M run‑rate achieved by Q2; raised FY25 low‑end guidance	$50M run‑rate achieved; cumulative commitment increased to $120M; ~8% professional roles eliminated	Accelerating
Capital allocation	Debt pay‑down from divestitures; guidance raises	Pro forma leverage <1.0x; ~$150M buyback; regular 2% annual repurchase intention	Balance sheet strength → buybacks

Management Commentary

“Our planned share repurchases in 2026 reflect our conviction in the significant earnings power and operating leverage we are creating… and robust free cash flow generation including fiscal 2026 guidance which includes a conversion ratio of 50%.” — Ole Rosgaard, CEO .
“Adjusted free cash flow also improved year‑over‑year… SG&A includes $28 million of operating costs related to the containerboard divestment… Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.01… Q4 tax expense was impacted by nonrecurring items… and jurisdiction mix.” — Larry Hilsheimer, CFO .
“Volumes were flat year‑over‑year [in Polymers]… small containers continued positive volume momentum driven by agrochemicals… mid‑single digit declines in IBC and large polymer drums…” — Ole Rosgaard, CEO .
“With our pro forma leverage below 1.0x… we plan to execute as quickly as possible on ~ $150 million open market repurchases… and seek new authorization enabling regular repurchases up to 2% per year.” — Larry Hilsheimer, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Sequencing of FY26 EBITDA: Q1 ≈20% of year; balance ~25–30% each quarter; low‑end guidance assumes flat to slight volume declines in metals/fiber and low single‑digit volume improvement in polymers/closures .
Cost levers vs potential volume downside: ability to pull back shifts/furloughs; upside from cost optimization likely in FY26 beyond low‑end bridge .
Closures pricing/procurement: ~$12M benefit from procurement in polymers/closures; focus on growing closures as an independent segment (“Innovative Closure Solutions”) with high margins and organic/M&A growth .
Metals regional dynamics: NA softness; EMEA steel performance surprisingly stronger on a 2‑year stack; manage metals for cash, flexible shifts .
IonKraft tech: proprietary barrier technology ramping through FY26–27; UN approval on first container; supports growth and sustainability positioning .
URB pricing/margins: incremental URB pricing benefits in FY26 bridge; goal for fiber margins to normalize higher; backlogs strongest in 2+ years .

Estimates Context

Revenue: Actual $701.3M vs consensus $714.4M for Q4 2025 — miss*.
Primary EPS: Actual GAAP (continuing ops) −$0.73 vs consensus $0.60 — miss*. Adjusted EPS was $0.01, reflecting tax distortions in a short quarter .
EBITDA: Consensus $101.2M vs company Adjusted EBITDA $98.9M — slight miss*.
FY estimates: FY 2025 consensus EBITDA ~$626.7M vs company Adjusted EBITDA $511.3M (11‑month) due to divestiture and quarter length effects; FY 2026 consensus EBITDA ~$640.6M aligns broadly with low‑end company guide trajectory*.

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global. Based on these outcomes, consensus models likely need to lower near‑term EPS for GAAP optics (tax and discontinued ops accounting), maintain/improve margin assumptions from price/cost and cost saves, and reflect portfolio changes.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Margin resilience despite industrial contraction: EBITDA margin expanded YoY; cost optimization and price/cost tailwinds are offsetting volume softness .
Expect cleaner optics in FY26: two‑month Q4 and unusual tax items depressed GAAP EPS; low‑end FY26 guide embeds conservative volumes and identifiable cost actions .
Capital returns likely near term: leverage <1.0x and a ~$150M buyback plan; management pursuing regular repurchases (~2%/yr) subject to Board approvals .
Segment tilt to resilience: polymers (small containers, agrochemicals) and closures are strategic growth focuses with attractive margins; metals managed for cash; fiber benefits from URB pricing and cost discipline .
Watch URB pricing and OCC: incremental URB pricing recognized and lower OCC costs should further support fiber margins in FY26 .
Technology and product innovation: IonKraft barrier tech ramp provides differentiated, sustainable packaging solutions; potential medium‑term growth driver .
Estimate revisions: expect EPS consensus cuts on GAAP optics for Q4; EBITDA/FCF likely to converge with company’s FY26 low‑end given clear bridge components*.